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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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